Hazard, Risk and Prediction
Winter Term 2019/20
Your Teacher(s)
- Stefan Hergarten
-
lecture, assignments
Appointments
- Tuesday 9–10 a.m., seminar room at the uppermost floor (03 037)
- Friday 11 a.m.–1 p.m., seminar room at the uppermost floor (03 037)
The class starts on Oct. 22.
Topics
- Basic terms: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk
- Event-size distributions and frequency-magnitude relations
- Recurrence times
- Temporal correlations
- Assessment of predictions
- Self-organized criticality
Examination
Your marks will be derived from homework to be solved during the semester
according according to the following scheme:
| Component |
Contribution |
| assignments |
5/6 |
| helping your classmates in solving the assignments or solving your assignments
on your own |
1/6* |
*
also depending on your own score, e.g., 20 % of your own score if you
solve all on your own
-
As an orientation, the maximum score (both components) will be about 160 points.
-
A total score of 50 % (about 80 points) is required to pass the class.
-
In case anyone fails, there will be a second exam. However, this
would be not easy for you as you would have to solve new assignments
without or with little support by your classmates, and it would be a
considerable amount of additional work for me. So please do not try!
Assignments
-
The assignments are designed individually for each student
using the enrollment number (7 digits). Solutions not corresponding to
your assignment sheet will not be marked without the chance of resubmission.
-
Criteria of evaluation are the correctness of the solution, interpretations
being consistent and understandable, and the quality of the figures
(e.g., axis labels and units).
-
If you use MATLAB, at least the main components of the
codes must be included in the solution (details of submission given below).
-
You may either submit your solutions alone or in groups of two students.
If you want to submit as a group, you must already fill in both enrollment
numbers when downloading your assignment sheet.
-
Beyond being allowed to submit your solution in a group of two students,
you are encouraged to solve the assignments together. You are even allowed to adopt
significant ideas from your classmates.
According to the general ethics of scientific work,
collaboration must be acknowledged when submitting an assignment
(details given during the submission procedure).
Copying MATLAB codes, figures or parts of the text is, however, not allowed.
Any solutions violating this rule will not be considered without the chance of resubmission.
-
As the assignments accompany the progress of the class,
the deadlines announced on the assignment sheets must be obeyed. A tolerance
of 15 days is given for all assignments in sum. You may, e.g., be late by 3 days at one
assignment, 4 days at another, and 8 days by a third one. Late submissions exceeding
this limit will not be considered. Please keep in mind that
the rule concerns individual assignments, not entire assignment sheets.
-
The deadline for the final assignment is Mar. 6, 2020.
Assignment Sheets
Assignment sheets
Submission of Solutions
Solutions can only be submitted as PDF files using the form below. A submission of printouts
or by e-mail is not possible. Details are given during the submission procedure.
Submission of Solutions
Solutions can only be submitted as PDF files using the form below. A submission of printouts
or by e-mail is not possible. Please pay attention to the following points:
-
As there is no official list of participants, you have to register before you
can upload any files. Registrations made for previous classes or for the
fieldtrip registration system are valid here, too.
If you are not sure whether you are already registered, please use the following
form to test your registration or to register.
-
PDF is the only accepted file format. Submissions must be either one file
per assignment sheet or one file per assignment (preferred).
-
The file size must not exceed 64 MB.
-
Special characters ("Umlaute" etc.) and white spaces in the
filename are not allowed.
-
Paper size must be similar to DIN A4 portrait (US letter or similar formats
are also acceptable, but not much larger), and the font size should be at least 11 pt.
-
If appropriate for the respective assignment, scanned hand-written solutions are also accepted,
provided that the technical quality is ok (no smartphone photos etc.).
The
photocopier close to the entrance of the CIP classroom offers scans of
good quality for free.
-
Short MATLAB code sequences that you executed step by step
in the command window should be included in your main PDF file.
Larger codes that you saved in a MATLAB file (.m) must be attached as
individual code attachments.
However, all relevant information (figures, interpretations)
must still be contained in your main PDF file.
-
If your solution requires data not included in your code (e.g., results
of previous assignments), you must upload them as data supplements (MATLAB workspace,
.mat).
-
If you use other programming languages, please ask for the details about uploading
your codes.
-
After uploading your file you receive a mail with page images (at
reduced resolution). Please check whether these page images are consistent with
the submitted document and whether you submited your file for the correct
class. Keep this mail as it is the proof of your submission.
-
If you receive an error message, your solution has not been submitted.
Downloads
No regular presentation file this semester, only some figures and
the screenshots from the interactive whiteboard.
