Hazard, Risk and Prediction
Winter Term 2021/22
Announcements
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Since the restrictions of classroom teaching have become more strict, we will switch
(hopefully temporarily) to online mode via Zoom from Dec. 1. For simplicity, we use the
Zoom session of the
class "Computing in Geosciences" for the first-year students. The login data will
be forwarded by e-mail.
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As suggested by the students, the Monday lecture will be moved to
Thursday, 1 p.m. from now on.
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There will be no lecture on Friday, Nov. 5.
Your Teacher(s)
- Stefan Hergarten
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lecture, assignments
Appointments
Monday 12 a.m.–1 p.m.Thursday 1–2 p.m.,
seminar room at the uppermost floor (03 037) via Zoom
- Friday 2–4 p.m.,
seminar room at the uppermost floor (03 037) via Zoom
We will start on Mon., Oct. 25. Sorry for the last-minute change in the schedule
due to a limited availability of classrooms!
Topics
- Basic terms: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, risk
- Event-size distributions and frequency-magnitude relations
- Recurrence times
- Temporal correlations
- Assessment of predictions
- Self-organized criticality
Examination
Your marks will be derived from homework to be solved during the semester
according according to the following scheme:
Component |
Contribution |
assignments |
5/6 |
helping your classmates in solving the assignments or solving your assignments
on your own |
1/6* |
*
also depending on your own score, e.g., 20 % of your own score if you
solve all on your own
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As an orientation, the maximum score (both components) will be about 180 to 200 points.
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A total score of 50 % (about 90 to 100 points) is required to pass the class.
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In case anyone fails, there will be a second exam. However, this
would be not easy for you as you would have to solve new assignments
without or with little support by your classmates, and it would be a
considerable amount of additional work for me. So please do not try!
Assignments
-
The assignments are designed individually for each student
using the enrollment number (7 digits).
As there is no official list of participants, you have to register before you
can download assignment sheets. Registrations made for previous classes or for the
fieldtrip registration system are valid here, too.
If you want to register or if you are not sure whether you are already registered,
please use the following
form to test your registration or to register.
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If you are not yet registered and want to take a look at the assignments,
you may use any 7 digit number for downloading. However, your submitted solution
must be consistent with the assignment sheet of your real enrollment number.
Solutions not corresponding to your assignment sheet will not be marked without the
chance of resubmission.
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Criteria of evaluation are the correctness of the solution, interpretations
being consistent and understandable, and the quality of the figures
(e.g., axis labels and units).
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You may either submit your solutions alone or in groups of 2 students.
If you want to submit as a group, you must already fill in both enrollment
numbers when downloading your assignment sheet.
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Beyond being allowed to submit your solution in a group of 2 students,
are encouraged to solve the assignments together. You are even allowed to adopt
significant ideas from your classmates.
According to the general ethics of scientific work,
collaboration must be acknowledged when submitting an assignment.
Details are given during the submission procedure.
Copying codes, figures or parts of the text from solutions of your classmates is,
however, not allowed.
Any solutions violating this rule will not be considered without the chance of resubmission.
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As the assignments accompany the progress of the class,
the deadlines announced on the assignment sheets must be obeyed.
A tolerance of 15 days is given for all assignments in sum. You may, e.g., be late
by 3 days at one assignment, 4 days at another, and 8 days by a third one.
This tolerance also includes short periods of sickness or failure of your computer.
If your submissions exceed this limit, you will lose some of your scores.
Please keep in mind that the rule concerns individual assignments, not entire
assignment sheets.
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The deadline for the final assignment(s) is Mar. 1.
Assignment sheets
Submission of Solutions
Solutions can only be submitted as PDF files using the form below. A submission of printouts
or by e-mail is not possible. Details are given during the submission procedure.
Downloads
No regular presentation file this semester, only some figures and
the screenshots from the interactive whiteboard.